A Synopsis of the Republican 2024 Presidential Primaries

Andrew Cui '25

January 1, 2024

Source: NYTimes

This year’s Republican primary might just create several historic firsts: a presidential rematch with criminal contenders, perhaps the first female GOP nomination, or even an election night with an Indian-American candidate. Whoever emerges victorious from the brawl of primary debates and caucuses will be given the chance to take on presidential incumbent Joe Biden and potentially secure a seat in the Oval Office.

This Republican primary race can be summed up as Donald Trump versus the rest. If the nomination were decided by popular vote, Trump would be the clear victor, garnering over 62.7% of the vote; Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would come in a distant second, taking home roughly 12.0% of the vote; and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley would account for another 10.9% [1] Considering current GOP politics, this utter dominance is to be expected. Trumpian politics and policies have influenced every segment of the Republican party, from the farmer voter in Kansas to their representatives in the highest Congress. [2] However, these factors do not entail a GOP nomination. In 2007, Hilary Clinton held a healthy 19-point lead over Obama, but we all know the ultimate result of that election cycle: an Obama primary and presidential victory. [3] And given recent circumstances, Trump may be more vulnerable than ever.

Recent Republican losses in off-year elections across the country have brought much criticism and skepticism toward the former president’s leadership. The recent governor’s race in Kentucky saw Trump-sponsored candidate Daniel Cameron fall short of Democrat Andy Beshear. Considering Trump won the state by 26 points in 2020, this democrat win was shocking. [4] This is all without noting Trump’s 91 charges across four criminal cases, which is by far the weakest aspect of his candidacy. In his federal January 6th case, Special Counsel Jack Smith is currently attempting to fast-track the case through the Supreme Court, claiming that the former President’s actions “obstruct[ed] a bedrock function of the U.S. government”. While Mr. Smith does have some precedence with Nixon’s tapes investigation, it would also coincidentally place Trump before a jury before November 5th. [5] If convicted on such charges, Trump could predictably lose 52% of GOP voters before the long-awaited election day. [6]

Even though the Supreme Court may take months to take charge, Trump is already suffering additional political consequences for his actions from state courts. On December 19th, the Colorado Supreme Court erased Trump from its 2024 ballot for his role on January 6th, citing a 14th Amendment clause that prevents insurrected candidates from running for elections. This decision’s implications may spread to other states, like Michigan and Arizona, which are also threatening to remove Trump from their ballots. [7]

And so, out of the growing ambiguity surrounding Trump’s 2024 candidacy arises the daunting questions: what will the future of our country be and who will step up and steal the show in the final hour?

Many eyes will be upon Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida, to take the mantle. His campaign is founded upon his appearance as a better version of Trump. He’s 32 years younger, he’s free of the 2020 election baggage, and he has a better policy record in his self-described “war on woke”. He’s betting on his response to COVID-19 in Florida, his appeal to conservative parents, and on Republicans who are skeptical of a third Trump nomination. His winning path relies upon breaking into Trump’s MAGA block of voters, while also scooping up all of the remaining republican trump-skeptics. [8]

Unfortunately, DeSantis’ post-launch struggles have exposed him as an efficient nominee. Reports discovered that his campaign was quickly running out of funding. Additionally, the chairman and CEO of the super PAC running his operation stepped down, and Florida’s “don’t say gay” policy and restrictions on education about such topics in schools have held him down. [9] It also doesn’t help that he carries a perception of being an awkward debater, especially in a race against a charismatic Donald Trump. Overall, his efforts to sell himself as a better version of Trump have fizzled thus far. [10] It seems as if Ron Desantis may be closer to a Trump Lite, than a Trump 2.0.

Amongst the throes of multiple candidates attempting to follow in Trump’s steps, one particular candidate glitteringly stands out: Nikki Haley. Through her former positions as Georgia governor and UN ambassador, Haley and her moderate-right views bring a new dimension and much-needed foreign policy expertise to this primary. [11] Surging in the polls, slowly but mighty, her path to a nomination is two-faceted: 1. Appeal to the moderates and independents who feel left behind by the Trump-turning GOP. And she has plenty of help to achieve such. At the end of November, Haley received nominations from two influential Super PACs, the Koch network and Independents Moving the Needle, granting her access to influential billionaires, the largest non-trump GOP backings, and entire networks of fundraising and marketing. [12, 13] 2. Manipulate the caucus system. Not every state has its caucus/election on the same date. A few states have their primaries and caucuses nearly a month before everyone; those being Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, in chronological order. Comparatively, these states may not be representative of all GOP voters or the US, but what they do get is grand media coverage and the ability to create electoral momentum. Many individuals in states that vote later look towards these early primary elections to dictate legitimate and illegitimate candidates; it’s along these results that many later states align with. [14] This is all why Nikki Haley and her team have targeted these early elections, and it’s showing in the polls. While Trump is leading with 63.1% of voters nationally, he’s down 13 points at 50.1% in Iowa. Nikki Haley, while being an underdog nationally, is fighting against Desantis for the number two position in Iowa. [15] When evaluating the next state primary in New Hampshire, Haley’s plan shows further success. Trump is now down at only 43.5%, with Nikki Haley as the clear runner-up, holding 18.9% of the vote and 8 points clear of Desantis. While Haley’s growing voter base is promising, it’s important to highlight that Trump is still 20%, 30%, and sometimes even 40% ahead of the rest in state polls. [16] It will take a miracle and a dramatic uptick over the next few months for Nikki Haley to enter the same league as Trump.

And now, that leaves us with a pair I’d like to call the long shots. These two individuals are polling under 4% nationally, have not found a foothold in the party, and are likely the next dropouts. Investor and former Roivant Sciences CEO Vivek Ramaswamy tops this list, known for his critique of “wokeness” and his impersonator on TikTok. Vivek certainly hasn’t shrunk from all the media attention, but his lack of uniqueness, platform, and presence in the recent debates has left him in the longshot category. Next up is former New Jersey governor Chris Christie. The recent debate cycle has been kind to him, awarding him much-needed media exposure. Unfortunately, the debates have accounted for the majority of his national new attention, and the result of such is his one-state candidacy. The only state in which he holds any relevance is New Hampshire, where roughly 12% of voters have stayed loyal to our former governor for the past few months. Given his third-place status in his best polling state and his lack of presence nationally, Christie seemingly has little path to the nomination.

Although we probably won’t see Biden take on Vivek Ramaswamy in the presidential debates, a few unforeseen developments in Trump’s criminal cases and a consolidation of moderate, independent, and Trump-doubting votes could make next month’s presidential primaries worth tuning into.

[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

[2] https://www.npr.org/2020/08/24/905536233/how-trump-has-changed-the-republican-party

[3] https://news.gallup.com/poll/27985/where-election-stands-june-2007.aspx

[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/08/republican-election-loss-analysis/

[5] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/12/trump-election-fraud-supreme-cou

rt-jack-smith-immunity/71889722007/

[6] https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

[7] https://apnews.com/article/trump-insurrection-14th-amendment-2024-colorado-d16dd8f354eeaf

450558378c65fd79a2

[8] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/11/donald-trump-republica

ns-base-2024/71850190007/

[9] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/01/ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/